Forgive My Cynicism But...

Forgive My Cynicism But..

I keep looking at the bike industry and I’m trying to find some reason to be optimistic. Two thousand twelve was a surprisingly good year for bike sales but the same can't be said about 2013. Two thousand fourteen seems to be the year that 26" mountain bikes die an unceremonious death. Both Giant and Jamis have banked heavily on the so called 27.5" format even down to the sub $600 level. 

While the 29er dealt a deathblow to 26" wheels its the 27.5" that snuck in at the last moment and stabbed the 26" in the eye just to finish it off. I'm sure 26" bikes will still be available but primarily on sub $500 bikes and for big hit / downhill bikes. Grant Petersen and Kirk Pacenti (and any one else whom I missed) have got to feel somewhat vindicated with the wider acceptance even though there were some earlier 27.5" mountain bikes that predated either one of their efforts.

But is this a cause for celebration or is it an effort by the majors who were caught with their pants down because they didn't hop on the 29" bandwagon early on and don't want to look like chumps this time around? Personally I think it's the latter rather than the former. 

A couple of years ago I talked to an insider at Ritchey because I was curious to see if they had any plans to make a 29" version of on of my all time favorite tires, the Z-Max. He said that you will never see a 29er from Ritchey because he does not believe in the format. I heard something similar from Wes Williams. Wes told me that Tom Ritchey doesn't like me (or niner bikes) because,  "I'm a pothead and he's (Tom) a born again (Christian)". 

The funny thing is about a year later Ritchey shows up at the Austin North American Handmade Bicycle Show with both a 650b and 29" mountain bike. Hey, Tom may not believe in the format but some one in their offices believes in money. 

I know another well known bike company who hopped on the 29" bike market only when the waters were safe. A couple of years ago I spoke to one of the key people in their operation and asked if they were going to produce a 29er any time soon and they said they'd like to but the owner of the company doesn't like them and called them "The fixed gear bikes of the offroad world". 

Guess what showed up about three years later? That's right, a big ol' 29er. 

Campagnolo built Lamborghini Wheel

Forgive my cynicism but I have little doubt that if any the major bike companies could switch gears and produce something more lucrative they would.  Do keep in mind that bicycle components represent only a fraction of the business that both Shimano and Campagnolo do in comparison to their motor sport divisions. 

My predictions for 2014 and beyond are as followed:

1) I think the majors will continue to try to create demands for products where none existed before.Twenty seven point five inch wheeled bikes are a prime example, same with carbon road bikes. And who can forget the $5,495 Lew Racing wheels ?

2) Bikes will continue to get uglier and uglier. All the plastic bikes look the same and so do their hydroformed alloy brethren. Full suspension bikes are all inherently ugly.

3) There is going to a large fracturing across the retail bike industry because the era of the "all in one" independent bicycle dealership is over. There will be a rise of bike shops specializing in $1,000 and under bikes while other IBDs will focus on $1,000 and higher bikes. Mom and pop shops will  become a distant memory and any bike under $500 will either only be available through big box stores or customer direct via the internet. 

4) Independent dealerships will have to focus more on service and less on sales if they are going to survive. Big box stores will have a rudimentary service center but won't be equipped to take on major repair work. 

5) Once the major bike companies figure out that they can make more money selling bikes  customer direct they will. Dealerships of every flavor will then scramble for suppliers and may be relegated only to second tear choices. Most call brands will follow the majors and will go customer direct too.

6) Eventually IBDs will be relegated to niche markets and chain stores, net sales and mass merchant big box stores will become the default means where most people will buy bikes.