I asked him what the chances are to having a piece of legislation backed by Lee, Hatch, and Dean Heller passing during this election cycle is. He said almost zero and without bipartisan support, it's not going to happen. In order for S.3205 pass the Senate S.3205 will need the backing of sixty Republicans and as of this date (meaning the tail end of September 2016) S.3205 has the nominal support of only three Senators.
Each of the three Senators associated with S.3205 are in tentative positions even in their own party. Long time Utah Senator Orrin Hatch just staved off a bitterly fought contest against Dan Liljenquist. Hatch has also indicated that this may be ”my last term in the Senate."
Mike Lee has also fallen out of favor with his core constituency and his approval ratings have dropped below 50%.
Dean Heller remains the odd man out. He’s distanced himself from some of his Tea Party supporters and that may or may not come back to haunt him. The same thing goes with his on again off again position on Cliven Bundy.
I also see Heller as being a polarizing figure and seems unlikely to play nicely and get along well with other people.
My DC man also said if the bill hasn't been introduced to committee it's not going to happen.
Also if the bill hasn't gone to the House yet it's not going to happen.
He did say, however, if the bill was attached as a rider it may go through that way but since the Republicans do not have a super majority in the Senate it's probably not going to happen because it still has to pass through the House then to the President. Even then there isn’t any guarantee of it’s passing depending on what bill it’s attached to.
Given that we are near the end of the legislative calendar it is unlikely that S.3205 the Human-Powered Travel in Wilderness Areas Act will pass this year.
Next year? Who knows.
But as of now GovTrack gives S. 3205 a 14% chance of passing meaning the likelihood of S. 3205 achieving liftoff is very low.
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