In the interest of full disclosure, my experience with disc brakes on road bikes is extremely limited. Several years ago I got a chance to ride a bike that had some prototype DuraAce disc brakes and that’s about it.
That said, I’ve ridden many mountain bike disc brakes including the Mountain Cycles cable activated hydraulic disc brakes, several different generations of Hayes brakes, a set of Grimeca-made disc brakes that said “Shimano” on them, a variety of Avid brakes, both hydraulic and cable activated and several Tektro cable activated disc brakes.
The adoption of road disc brakes has been controversial. Proponents say that discs have better wet-weather performance and, in theory, they are less prone to fading on long dissents and they don’t take a lot of hand pressure to activate.
The cons are they often can’t be used with older bikes, they are heavier, they add complexity, they can leak or get contaminated, they are subject to planned obsolescence, and brake pads aren’t universal.
Rim brakes are lighter, modern high-power dual pivot caliper brakes can be used on some older bikes, except for some carbon fiber rims brake pads are generally universal, and most of them are easy to set up. However, some rim brakes are horrible and are terrifying even in dry conditions and ride on moderate terrain, some rim brakes suffer from a significant drop in performance during wet weather or when heated by friction on long dissents.
Another bone of contention is through-axle quick releases (QRs). Some modern road bikes come with similar quick-release mechanisms found on modern mountain bikes while others still come with more conventional quick-release mechanisms. While you can make the argument that through-axle quick releases are safer because once they are secured in place they are difficult to remove, the flip side to that is, if the wheel needs to be removed in a hurry, like during a race, they are slower to remove and more precision is needed to install them correctly.
Adding further complications there isn’t a universal standard for through-axle QRs.
Conventional quick releases are lightweight, they are generally simple to use, and they are more or less universal. However, they aren’t without their shortcomings. Some quick releases don’t close with enough force to secure the axle and can slip or even fall out of the dropouts (I’m talking about you crap-tastic external cam design QRs), “lawyer tabs” can impede quick wheel changes and some designs were fiddly.
For the most part, I think rim brakes and internal cam QRs work plenty fine, especially on moderate terrain and during fair weather. If a rider is familiar with proper braking techniques then I don’t see much of a reason for anything more powerful than a set of well-maintained rim brakes with a broken-in set of brake pads.
However, for heavier, more aggressive riders, riders that ride during wet weather or who ride on steep hills at a high rate of speed, the benefits of disc brakes come into play.
Q: Can I give you an accurate recommendation?
A: Realistically? Probably not.
If you're an experienced rider, nothing I will say will make any difference.
However, if you're just getting your toes wet with new technologies, make the effort to go to several shops, ask a lot of questions, ride a bunch of bikes. If you don't like the vibe of the shop or anything they are selling, go somewhere else. That may not always be an option but that's my recommendation.
Ideally, I’d love to see a high-quality cable-activated disc brake that offered stopping power comparable to a hydraulic brake. I’d love to see a cable-activated disc brake that used commonly available brake pads. However, I’m pro-through-axle QRs.
Several years ago I had a catastrophic failure involving a quick release that resulted in a sizable hospital bill so I’m willing to put up with some of the
idiosyncrasies of a through-axle just to have that peace of mind.
Q: Can I predict what will happen next?
A: Not in the slightest.
However, I have a feeling that road bikes are going through some changes just like mountain bikes did. If you’re of a certain age mountain bikes started with coaster brakes, and some early bikes used caliper brakes, then they moved to cantilevers followed by a period of different rim brakes like U-cams and roller cams, then back to cantilevers, and before disc brakes upset the high-end market, high leverage V-brake-style cantilevers ruled the mountain bike world.
After much experimentation, and failures things have largely sorted themselves out.
As far as road bikes go, we may see a similar division we do with mountain bikes - high-end bikes have disc brakes and low-end bikes will use rim brakes.
Specialty builders will make high-end road bikes with rim brakes on request but mass-produced ones will come with discs.
I doubt road bike rim brakes will completely disappear but they won’t represent the majority of the market.
Rivendell’s Gus Boots Willsen is an example of a design that still soldiers on even when the industry has gone in another direction. The Gus Boots Willsen is a long-wheelbase rigid steel hardtail without any allowances for disc brakes so it’s an oddity for a bike made in the 2020s but whatever floats your boat.
Ride what you like but don’t bash people for not riding what you like.
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